Greetings, informed viewers, to today’s episode of Planet Earth: Our Loving Home, the conclusion of a two-part series, focusing on the deep interconnection between our oceans and the world’s climate.

Oceans cover 71% of the Earth’s surface, contain approximately 97 % of the world’s water, sustain a diverse array of sea life and play a vital role in regulating our planet’s climate in a multitude of ways – including through thermohaline circulation, also known as the Great Ocean Conveyor which absorbs large quantities of heat and carbon dioxide.

Last week in part one, we saw the different ways in which the oceans stabilize the climate, but the relationship is not one way. Today we’ll examine how climate change increases sea levels and some of the possible consequences that our world faces from this process.

The experts featured today Dr. Claude Hillaire-Marcel, a Canadian geoscientist from the University of Quebec at Montreal, Professor Anders Levermann, a senior researcher at the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research in Germany and the lead author of the Sea Level Change chapter for the coming 5th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Dr. Ted Scambos, senior research scientist at The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, USA.

The major drivers of advancing sea levels are the thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of ice caps and glaciers due to global warming.

We’re disturbing the climate system with a temperature increase, and the higher the temperature increases, the more disturbance we introduce and therefore the risk increases, I would say. Sea level can rise by the expansion of water when it gets warmer. That’s the simple part. We know the physics and the big question is only how deep it’s mixed down in the sea, so how many layers are expanding, really.

So we have several feedbacks which we are unraveling now, both the ice shelf melting feedback, and melting in the Arctic sea ice, which leads to a warmer ocean and a change in climate in the Arctic. The acceleration of glaciers seems to be accelerated by the presence of a little bit of melting, which leads to further sea level rise.

We know we’re going to be pushed in this direction of a climate that we have not seen in several million years.

Many scientists point out that the future sea level rise estimates made in the 2007 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were far too low, with the revised forecasts pointing to danger ahead for low-lying areas.

In its last assessment, this group used several climate models, but all these models failed or were too conservative to really predict the evolution of the recent few years in terms of sea level rise. The sea level is rising faster than these models predicted in terms of the shrinking of summer ice in the Arctic. There is less ice in the Arctic in summer than these models predicted for the last few years.

I’m one of the lead authors of the next report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on this specific sea level chapter. There we will have to try to make a very thorough analysis of the sea level. The last IPCC report was good but the sea level was a clear underestimation of what we have to expect in the future.

The reason I say this is that the last IPCC report said, in the next century we’re going to get 20 centimeters to 60 centimeters in sea level rise globally. Now, in the last century, we had 15 to 20 centimeters already. The 20 to 60 for the next century came from the different scenarios that we could have, the different global warming paths that we might be on.

In the period from where the projection started in 2000, until the report was published in 2007, we had already underestimated the observed sea level by 40%. If you do already the first seven years by 40% wrong, it’s almost half wrong. So, the reason was simply that we didn’t have enough proper models for the great ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. These are the unknowns.

We will now pause for a moment and when we come back, we’ll have more about how the heating of our Earth is causing sea level changes. Please stay tuned to Supreme Master Television.

Welcome back to today’s Planet Earth: Our Loving Home on Supreme Master Television where we are examining the important relationship between the oceans and our world’s climate. During the past century, the global average sea level rose at a rate of about 1.7 millimeters per year. The current average is 3.1 millimeters per year.

With the warming of the planet and the melting glaciers and ice sheets, one forecast by a UK and Finnish scientific team pegs the average global sea level to advance by 0.8 meters to 1.5 meters by the end of the century. Many major cities around the world, such as New York City, USA, are at one meter or less above sea level.

In the last ice age we had 120 to 130 meters less sea level compared to the present day. So, when you hear that we had 15 to 20 centimeters in the last century of sea level change, you get the feeling that we are only talking about centimeters all the time and that sounds like not so much. It is a lot. The ice melt in Greenland is important. The Greenland ice sheet is 3,000 meters thick.

To the sea level rising, the most critical one today is Greenland. The last episode with a warmer globe than present was about 125,000 years ago, an interval which geologists refer to as the last interglacial. During this interval the Greenland ice sheet was significantly reduced because there was drastically different vegetation in southern Greenland than today. So it means that the southern part of the ice sheet had probably largely disappeared.

And there was still a robust ice sheet, but in the northern part of the island. And it is an interval when the average sea level was about four meters above present. Okay. Minimum. Okay. Possibly more than four meters but it's a very conservative estimate.

So it means that we have started now a process leading to a fast melting of part of this ice sheet, of the Greenland ice sheet due to global warming that is potentially leading to a higher sea level of few meters above present. In terms of how fast, again, it’s very… you know things accelerate.

So perhaps a couple of years ago, a few years ago I would have said, "Well, maybe a few thousand years," to be prudent. Ah, now, it’s perhaps 2,000 years to see a very fast rise in sea level. And well, it means that’s, at our time scale, that’s one generation or two generations or three generations, which is our real concern now.

The rate of sea level increases may be fast enough to lead to really critical and difficult to solve problems in many countries of the world. Ok. Bangladesh for example just to mention one.

The Antarctic is an extremely sensitive area with respect to global warming. A recent study from the University of Toronto, Canada found that if a complete disintegration of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet were to occur due to climate change, the Sheet’s sheer weight could cause Earth’s rotational axis to shift by 500 meters.

The scientists also concluded that such an event would cause an uneven global rise in sea level with the coastline of North America seeing a six meter rise, and the rest of the world seeing about a five meter rise.

In fact, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has collapsed several times over the last five-million years. When they occurred in the past, that meant the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and three and a half meters of sea level rise from there, plus another three and a half from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. So there was about seven meters of sea level rise.

Greenland and Antarctica each probably account for about 25% of the total sea level rise and sea level rise rates have been going up since the last 20 or 30 years or so. Prior to about again 1990, the sea level rise rate was something like between one and two millimeters per year. Now the total sea level rise rate is between two and three millimeters per year and we’re just getting started on this warming trend.

The problem is that Greenland and Antarctica have the ability to contribute much, much more ice to the ocean, which would cause the sea level rise rate to increase very rapidly. Warming of the oceans will increase as the pace of warming in the atmosphere increases but not at the rate that Greenland and Antarctica can increase their contribution of ice to the ocean. So in the future, more and more of sea level rise will come from the ice sheets relative to the thermal expansion of the oceans.

Which countries will be most affected by increasing sea levels?

Several island nations such as the Maldives, Kiribati and Tuvalu are in danger of soon disappearing altogether. The President of the Maldives, His Excellency Mohamed Nasheed is looking for places to move his country’s entire population in anticipation of such an event. Professor Levermann’s research has closely examined this issue in terms of consequences for Europe and North America.

What we found was an increase mainly along the American and the European coasts. The strongest increase was around the Greenland coast. There are people living there, so it's important, the highly populated areas up to Florida (USA), or the entire US coast, the same for the European coast.

US researchers recently did something slightly different; they projected global warming plus a weakening of the thermohaline circulation. They found the U.S. coast was very strongly affected. So these are the main regions that need to worry. That's the East coast of the U.S. and Canada and potentially the European coasts, too.

We sincerely thank the respected Earth scientists featured today for their insightful research on the relationship between the oceans and our global climate and for helping us better understand increasing sea levels and the serious consequences for life on our planet.

For more details on the scientists featured on today’s program, please visit the following websites:
Dr. Claude Hillaire-Marcel www.Professeurs.UQAM.ca
Professor Anders Levermann www.PIK-Potsdam.de
Dr. Ted Scambos NSIDC.org

Eco-wise viewers, thank you for joining us on today’s Planet Earth: Our Loving Home. Coming up next is Enlightening Entertainment after Noteworthy News. May we all live sustainable lives to protect the oceans and curb climate change.

Mr. Laurent Imbault is a noted Canadian actor and comedian and founder of GoodnessTV, an Internet television station that broadcasts only good news. Through online media, Mr. Imbault seeks to improve our world.

The idea is to create a network of people sharing ideas, sharing know-how, knowledge, experiences, so that things can move a lot faster than they’re moving now. So GoodnessTV really wants to become ‘goodness network’ where people can exchange all these ideas and grow faster.

Watch the second and final part of "Laurent Imbault and GoodnessTV: Uplifting the World" Sunday, August 8, on Good People, Good Works.