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| 气候变迁的事实 - 对大气的冲击
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1. 温室气体的水平
- 目前，联合国跨政府气候变迁小组（IPCC）针对最坯情况的一些预测正逐渐成为事实，或甚至更糟，到了本世纪末，二氧化碳的浓度将会达到1,000ppm，引发灾难性的后果。为了让地球维持在与目前差不多的状况，人类必须努力将目前385ppm的二氧化碳浓度降低，控制在350ppm的目标水平才行。
- 目前的「碳汇」（Carbon sinks）逐渐呈现饱和状态，变成会增加温室气体的碳源，而不是吸收温室气体。
- 由于气候变迁引发干旱的压力，全球植物的生长已呈现10年的衰退（2000年至2009年）。（《科学》〔Science〕杂志，2010年8月）
- 海洋已吸收了太多二氧化碳，导致酸化的速度令人担忧。（《自然地球科学》〔Nature Geoscience〕期刊，布里斯托大学的研究人员，2010年）
- 只要全球平均升温摄氏2 度，数十亿吨甲烷就可能从北极释出，导致生命大量灭绝。
2. 温度的上升
- 现在若没有采取任何重大的行动，气温升高摄氏4度的最坯情况将提前至2060年发生，这表示沙漠规模扩大，亚马逊雨林瓦解，永冻层融化而释放出巨量的甲烷和二氧化碳；到21世纪末，就可能升温摄氏5度至7度，引发灾难性的后果。（英国气象局，2009年）
- 科学家指出，2010年前8个月已创下全球史上最高气温纪录。（美国太空总署〔NASA〕，2010年）
- 2010年，16 个国家经历了前所未有的酷热和创纪录高温，这也是酷热国家数量最多的一 年，包括科威特、伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯、乍得、尼日尔尔尔尔尔、俄罗斯、缅甸和巴基斯坦在内。
- 由于人为因素，全球平均气温仅仅在过去一个世纪就上升了摄氏0.7度，上升速度比历史标准快上10 倍。
- 过去10年来的年平均气温，也创下地球有史以来的最高温纪录。（美国太空总署，2010年）
- 情况若没有舒缓，举例来说，美国大部分地区在本世纪末恐将达到华氏122 度（摄氏50度）的极端高温。（《地球物理研究通讯》〔Geophysical Research Letters〕期刊的报告，2008年）
- 各国政府在哥本哈根会议对减少温室气体排放所做的承诺，不足以避免气候变迁的失控，仍然会导致危险的升温达摄氏3度以上。（美国麻省理工学院，2010年）
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| 参考来源 |
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- McDermott, M. (2009, December 3). Worst-Case IPCC Climate Change Trajectories Are Being Realized: Copenhagen Climate Congress Concludes. treehugger. Retrieved January, 2011 from
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/03/worst-case-ipcc-climate-change-trajectories-being-realized-copenhagen-climate-congress-concludes.php - Romm, J. (2009, March 22). An introduction to global warming impacts: Hell and High Water. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/22/an-introduction-to-global-warming-impacts-hell-and-high-water/
- He, G. (2008, July 9). Finding a Safe Level of Carbon Dioxide for the Global Atmosphere: Results of the Tallberg Forum. World Resources Institute. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/320
- Zhao, M. and Running, S.W. (2010, August 20). Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009. Science 329(5994), 940-943 [Electronic version]. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/329/5994/940.abstract
- Ridgwell A., and Schmidt, D.N. (2010 , February 14). Past constraints on the vulnerability of marine calcifiers to massive carbon dioxide release. Nature Geoscience online. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from Global Warming University of Bristol news website http://www.bris.ac.uk/news/2010/6835.html
- Romm, J. (2010). A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the precipice. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2010/11/15/year-in-climate-science-climategate/
- Shukman, D. (2009, September 29). Four degrees of warming ‘likely’. BBC News. Retrieved January , 2011 from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8279654.stm
- Lynas, M. (2007, April 23). ‘Six steps to hell’ - summary of Six Degrees as published in The Guardian. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://www.marklynas.org/2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-summary-of-six-degrees-as-published-in-the-guardian
- McDermott, M. (2009). 5.2°C Temperature Rise by 2100: New Business-As-Usual Climate Scenario Presented. treehugger. Retrieved January , 2011 from
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/05/5-degree-celsius-temperature-rise-by-2100-new-mit-business-as-usual-scenario.php
- Romm, J. (2010). NASA reports hottest January to August on record. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://climateprogress.org/2010/09/12/nasahottest-january-to-august-on-record/
- Highest temperature ever recorded (2010). Wikipedia. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records
- Riebeek, H. (2010). Global Warming. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from NASA, Earth Observatory website
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php - Voiland, A. (2010). 2009: Second Warmest Year on Record; End of Warmest Decade. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from NASA, Science News website
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/temp-analysis-2009.html
- Romm, J. (2008, July 31). When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures? An online acticle on the Geophysical Research Letters paper. Climate Progress blog. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from http://climateprogress.org/2008/07/31/when-can-we-expect-extremely-high-surface-temperatures/
- Vidal, J. (2010, Februay 12 ). Carbon targets pledged at Copenhagen ‘fail to keep temperature rise to 2C’. An online acticle on the US Massachusetts Institute of Technology [MIT] analysis. The Guardian. Retrieved January 11, 2011 from
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/12/copenhagen-carbon-emission-pledges
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